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☆ Dollar General sinks 19% on a slashed profit outlook as company says its budget-sensitive customers are relying more on food banks and credit cards
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Dollar General shares sharply fell Thursday as the retailer sliced its full-year financial outlook. The company said customers are spending less on discretionary items and relying more on food banks. The company said its customers were continuing to shift more of their spending from discretionary items as the focus on basics such as food. Sales and earnings for its fiscal first quarter fell short of Wall Street's targets and the company sliced full-year projections. "[U]nfortunately, our customers are saying they're having to rely more on food banks, savings, credit cards.

Persons: —, Jeffrey Owen Organizations: Service

☆ As Wall Street pushes valuations of AI companies into the atmosphere, America's small businesses are getting more 'AI curious,' survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Small businesses are AI-curious," American Express said about its survey of 550 small business leaders. "Small businesses are AI-curious," American Express said about the results of its recently released survey of 550 small business leaders. The survey, which ran in March, showed that 41% of small businesses are prioritizing AI to help them make decisions. The findings come as Wall Street is in the midst of an investment frenzy set off by last year's introduction of natural-language chatbot ChatGPT. But AI stocks have jumped so much that some on Wall Street think it's time to reduce risk and capture some profits.

Persons: —, Michael Landsberg Organizations: Express, Service, Nvidia, Big Tech, Google, Microsoft, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management

☆ The 5 largest mega-cap stocks are responsible for most of the rally in the S&P 500 this year - but the market can still gain if Big Tech fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon have fronted the S&P 500's advance so far in 2023. But if the rally in those mega-caps fades, the market can still post gains, said BMO Capital MarketsAlso, narrow market breadth generally "does not represent a bad omen for S&P 500 performance." In the 12 months afterward, the S&P 500 climbed an average of 22.2%. Six months out, the S&P 500 was up more than 12%, and 12 months out, it had tacked on 43.6%. "Our work shows that the S&P 500 index recorded a 13.2% annualized price return during these periods of narrowing market breadth with the only loss coming in 2001-2003," he wrote.

Persons: —, peters, ChatGPT, Brian Belski, Belski Organizations: Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, BMO Capital Markets, Service, Amazon, BMO

☆ Mega-cap tech dominance in the S&P 500 is obscuring investor bets that the US may already be in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The jump in S&P 500's big tech stocks is masking concerns among investors that the US is already in recession, BlackRock Investment Institute says. The US has logged back-to-back quarters of contraction in gross domestic income. The S&P 500 has tacked on about 9% this year. Last week, the government said gross domestic income declined 2.3% in the first quarter of 2023 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Its aggressive series of hikes last year contributed to driving the S&P 500 down more than 18% last year.

Persons: —, Jean Boivin Organizations: BlackRock Investment Institute, US, Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Fed Locations: BlackRock, Germany, Europe's, U.S

☆ Oil prices slide 5% amid skepticism the debt-ceiling deal holds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday as worries about demand for the commodity accelerated. Two of nine Republicans on the House Rules Committee have signaled opposition to the debt ceiling deal. US and international oil prices each dropped to their lowest prices since May 5. The Fiscal Responsibility Act, if passed, would limit US baseline spending for two years and raise the debt ceiling into 2025. "Oil prices remain stuck while awaiting the response from Congress on the debt ceiling deal," Saxo Bank strategists said in a note early Tuesday.

Persons: —, Brent, Price, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: West Texas, Service, Republican, White House, Caucus, Politico, CNBC, Saxo Bank, Treasury Department Locations: Saudi, Brent

☆ House prices are declining in these 7 Western states while continuing to hit new heights across the rest of the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US house prices rose modestly in the first quarter, said the FHFA on Tuesday. The agency's House Price Index reached just under 400, hitting an all-time high with figures tracking back to 1991. "However, year over year prices in many western states have started to decline for the first time in over ten years." Over the last four quarters, house prices rose in 78 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas, fronted by a 14% rise for the Miami area. The start of the spring selling season showed house price gains in March in a separate S&P CoreLogic report released Tuesday.

Persons: —, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Anju Vajja, Black Knight, San, FHFA Organizations: Service, Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA's Research, Statistics, of Columbia, Pacific, Federal Reserve, Black, Nationwide Locations: . Utah, Nevada, Washington, Idaho , Oregon, Colorado, West Coast, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami, San Mateo, Redwood City , California

☆ Nvidia achieves $1 trillion market cap for the first time as AI-fueled stock surge continues
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Nvidia achieved a market cap above $1 trillion for the first time on Tuesday. Nvidia's latest leg up was driven by a series of new AI products and partnerships announced over the weekend. Nvidia rose as much as 7.7% to $419.38 on Tuesday, giving it a market cap of $1.036 trillion and making it the first chipmaker to touch a $1 trillion market capitalization. Shares finished the day higher by 3% at $401.11, logging a market cap of $990 billion. Shares of Nvidia soared last week after the company's first-quarter earnings and second-quarter guidance trounced analyst expectations.

Persons: —, Google's Bard, Grace Hopper superchips, Jensen Huang Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Investors, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, WPP Locations: Taipei

☆ BofA says AI is in a 'baby bubble' that echoes the dot-com era, and one move could easily blow up the investment frenzy ignited by ChatGPT
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

What could burst the bubble is the Fed pausing rate hikes and then restarting the cycle. AI is in a "baby bubble" for now, Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Global Research, wrote on Friday. The Fed may be on the way to pausing its run of rate hikes at its June 14 gathering. The dot-com bubble popped nine months later. "AI = internet," wrote Hartnett.

☆ US stocks close lower after Republicans and the White House hit an impasse in debt-ceiling talks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks fell Friday after talks in Washington over raising the debt ceiling were paused. "We've got to get movement by the White House and we don't have any movement yet," House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said. Stocks earlier this week hit a nine-month high on hopes a debt-limit deal was in reach soon. Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said talks with the Biden administration had reached a standstill. "We've got to get movement by the White House and we don't have any movement yet," McCarthy said at the Capitol, according to the Associated Press.

☆ US stocks climb as Wall Street hopes debt ceiling deal is in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks advanced Friday as investors see the potential for a deal that raises the $31 trillion debt ceiling. Stocks were on course for a weekly win with the S&P 500 hitting a nine-month high. Gains on Friday would add to this week's advance that lifted the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to nine-month highs. Elsewhere in Washington, negotiators representing President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy were set to continue talks this weekend over lifting the $31 trillion debt ceiling that's needed to avoid a debt default. Bank of America warned on mega-cap tech stocks, saying a "big asset bubble" in growth shares is building.

☆ There's one simple reason why US housing inventory is set to remain low for the foreseeable future
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The share of outstanding mortgages financed at less than 3% jumped during the pandemic, said Pantheon Macroeconomics. New home listings in April were down more than 20% from a year ago, according to Realtor.com, with steepening mortgage rates a factor. It also found that about 97% of outstanding mortgages are fixed for 15 years or for 30 years, and 60% are just one to four years old. "In other words, most existing homeowners are not going to move unless they absolutely have to, due to death, divorce, or an—irresistible—job offer," said Clancy. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging 6.55%, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Thursday.

☆ There are 2 things needed to sustain this year's blistering rally in tech stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It said a further rally needs continued profitability at tech companies and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday closed at a year-to-date high, at 12,500.57, and it's up more than 19% since the start of the year. While Federal Reserve anticipates a "mild recession" starting later this year, policymakers have indicated they won't begin cutting interest rates until 2024. High interest rates can hurt the potential value of future profit at growth companies. DataTrek said the Fed battling hot inflation "was not a factor during the winning years," it had outlined for the Nasdaq Composite.

☆ Investors have pulled $8 billion from this pocket of the stock market in just 2 months on recessions worries and debt ceiling fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Small-cap stocks have been hurt by $8 billion in outflows from ETFs focused on that segment, says Jefferies. That started in March when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were seized, spooking investors. "Banks are a big part of small caps and are headwinds for the size segment," Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis wrote in a Wednesday research note. Meanwhile, small-cap stocks, which make up just over 4% of the equity market, tend to perform worse than large-caps when the economy is veering into a recession. Meanwhile, the current stalemate between Republicans and Democrats on the debt ceiling doesn't bode well for small-cap stocks, which slid by 25% during 2011 debt standoff.

☆ Western Alliance soars 12% to lead rally in regional bank stocks after the lender says deposits increased by more than $2 billion
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Western Alliance shares surged Wednesday after telling investors that deposits continue to stabilize. Deposit growth exceeded $2 billion on a quarter-to-date basis as of May 12, the lender said. Regional bank stocks followed Western Alliance's lead higher. Western Alliance shares zoomed up 12% to $35.45, the highest since May 2 when they traded above $36 each. Western Alliance shares have suffered a loss of more than 40% during 2023.

☆ Billionaire Marc Lasry, who sold his stake in the Milwaukee Bucks, sees pickleball offering a better return than investment in the NBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Marc Lasry said his investments in pickleball and other upstart sports leagues could offer a higher return than those in NBA teams. The co-founder of Avenue Capital Group bought a pickleball team with tennis star James Blake for $100,000 in 2021. He told Bloomberg TV that the team is now worth $10 million. The co-founder of Avenue Capital Group told Bloomberg Television he believes his investments in pickleball and other upstart sports leagues could offer a higher return than those in NBA teams. This year, the 63-year-old investor agreed to sell his 25% stake in the Milwaukee Bucks basketball team.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian says regional banks are in a 'hospital' phase of turmoil, but a Fed policy mistake will drive them 'back into the ICU'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The regional banking crisis has shifted out a severe stage, economist Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg on Tuesday. But another Fed policy mistake could drive small to mid-sized lenders "back into the ICU." If there's another [Fed] policy mistake, the patient goes back into the ICU," said the chief economic adviser at Allianz. Depositors have yanked hundreds of billions of dollars out of regional lenders collectively this year, including PacWest and First Republic Bank. What would another policy mistake look like to El-Erian?

☆ Falling lumber prices and lower spending by DIY customers drags on Home Depot sales and stock price
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sliding lumber prices and softer consumer demand hit sales at Home Depot in the first quarter. Framing lumber prices dropped 64% in a year, while sales for patio furniture and grills softened. Shares of Home Depot fell as much as 3.9% to an intraday low of $277.10, the weakest price since late October. Lumber prices have also dramatically come off highs hit during the COVID-19 pandemic. Comparable sales fell by 4.5% in the quarter ended April 30 and declined by 4.6% at US stores.

☆ Russia is exporting the most oil since invading Ukraine as Moscow has little trouble finding willing buyers, IEA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's oil exports hit their highest since Moscow invaded Ukraine last year, the IEA said. Crude oil exports reached a post-invasion high of 8.3 million barrels a day in April. Russia's revenue from oil exports rose by $1.7 billion last month to $15 billion, according to the IEA. Overall tax receipts from Russia's oil and gas sector declined 64% year over year. China and India now account for about 90% of Russian oil purchases, commodities analytics firm Kpler said recently.

☆ Markets think falling inflation means rate cuts are around the corner. Here's why that's probably wrong.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in July briefly spiked up to 50% this past week. But the Fed is unlikely to swing from 10 straight rate hikes to cuts within two months, a Truist Advisory economist said. The probability spiked to nearly 50% over the past week after the release of the April inflation report and another sell-off in regional bank stocks like PacWest. That's when policymakers thought they got a handle on high inflation after an initial round of rate hikes. What's likely to jumpstart rate cuts is job losses, which could arrive toward the end of this year, Skordeles said.

☆ Markets think the odds of a Fed rate cut in July are almost 50% after April CPI showed inflation cooling more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation in April increased by less than anticipated, spurring further bets the Federal Reserve will start rate cuts this summer. Odds of a cut in July rose to 45.9% on Wednesday from 29.3% a day earlier. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues last week ushered in their 10th consecutive rate increase as inflation remains above their 2% target. The Fed funds rate at 5%-5.25% stands at the highest since 2007. Inflation appears unlikely to rev higher again, which means the most likely scenario for monetary policy is the Fed remaining on hold, said Zaccarelli.

☆ US stocks trade mixed as investors assess cooler April inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks end mixed on Wednesday after the release of April inflation data. Inflation cooled to 4.9%, below expectations of a 5% rate. The Nasdaq Composite powered higher while the Dow slumped. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. But the Dow, which carries many bank and consumer-oriented stocks, felt the weight of investors' concerns about the economy moving into a recession.

☆ A stock picker's market is forming for the first time since 2008 as investors ditch ETFs and pile into single shares, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America said it seeing the first sign of a stock picker's market since 2008. So far this year, $25 billion has flowed into single stocks while ETF outflows have reached $9 billion. The figures point to the "first sign of a stock picker's market since 2008," Jill Carey Hall, who leads BofA's small and mid-cap strategy, said in a weekly update capturing activity among its clients. While more money is flowing to stock pickers, their actual performance versus the rest of the market is another matter. Single stock inflows with ETF outflows from 2008 to 2023.

☆ Here are 5 questions that are top of mind for investors as the S&P 500 wavers and the Fed enters its next policy phase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Barclays outlined the top questions investors are asking as the S&P 500 looks stuck in a tight trading range. The S&P 500 is likely to remain rangebound in the short-term, Krishna said. Tail risks aside, markets may be lulled into thinking hurdles - just as the current earnings recession – can be cleared in record time. That scenario tilts the balance of risk toward its base case of a shallow recession base case and an S&P 500 price target of 3,725. The S&P 500 during Tuesday's session was at 4,125.

☆ Stocks are set for more volatility as the 'unlucky 13' months of strong job growth complicates the Fed's mission to cool the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A blowout jobs report and could make the Fed's job of tamping down inflation harder. The April US jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by of 253,000 and a fall in the unemployment rate to 3.4%. Wages are key to the Fed's inflation outlook, and April brought a 0.5% rise in average hourly pay – the biggest monthly increase in a year. "This is a market that's really going to struggle. "It's too early to assess the likelihood of an additional Fed rate hike in mid-June, but this latest jobs report will push the excessively data-dependent Fed towards further tightening – a mistake in our view."

☆ Dow leaps 546 points as US stocks surge after Apple earnings and hot April jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped on Friday as tech behemoth Apple and regional bank stocks climbed. The S&P 500 finished higher after four consecutive losses, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average piled on more than 500 points. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:Equities also found strength from a jump in regional bank shares, including PacWest and Western Alliance after sharp selloffs during the week. Yields ran up as the bond market sold off following the stronger-than-expected US jobs report for April. "The April jobs report is indisputably hawkish and puts the focus back on the Fed – especially if inflation data also beat next week.

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